May 5, 2013

India should not opt for military confrontation with China

Chinese's incursion attempts into India raises question on preparedness of Indian establishment to handle such situations. The media critics and right wing liberals are asking for muscular response but government decision of not considering the military response as first option is right to the greater extent. Demand of the time is not to respond militarily but strategically after analyzing China's intentions behind border incursions.

Wars are never fought to satisfy nationalist ego of its citizens and even if war happens to satisfy nationalist ego, it is just used to cover up hidden war objectives. China has global ambitions and along with that it has huge economy to fuel. So in present times, China's interests are more of securing its supply lines and energy resources than those of territorial expansion. In the recent times, China has been trying to assert it rights over South China sea  and that seems to be the supreme objective to secure resources at South China sea.

Any country would prefer to settle the border disputes through diplomacy but  economic resources have always been claimed through military might. If things were to end here, India can be a silent spectator to the events which would unfold in coming times. US would not be a mute spectator and China sees US intervention inevitable at the time of conflict. Involvement of US would mean threatened supply lines throughout South Asia. Thus, fighting enemies in South China sea and at the same time securing supply lines would be costly and ineffective war strategy for China.

The easy way out for China would be through Pakistan, bypassing the South Asia and that's where border incursions figures-in in China's design. Sooner or later, India will have to face China at China's place of choice i.e. J&K, along with that China may try to enter Arunachal Pradesh but that would be a trap to weaken Indian force on north-western boarders. India must delay any confrontation with China as much as possible. China is looking for small and limited war to achieve its objective through border incursions and possibly to demoralize others. The military response to China would mean reduced Indian military strength and later that would pave the way for China to secure supply lines through Pakistan. Sometimes diplomacy and patience also defeats the enemy. India should wait patiently till South China sea conflict unfolds and strategically should kill the intentions of enemy. The other point to be noted is that with so much to attain, China won't be able to pour all military resources on Indian boarders at the time of South China sea conflict and that's would be an opportunity India should wait. War is not a game of numbers but of objectives and strategy . 



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